The Winner Of The 2009 Booker Prize Will Be...

by Glenn Fisher

I’m going against the grain...

Tonight the winner of the 2009 Booker Prize is announced and the money is on a book called Wolf Hall by Hilary Mantel.

Not my money, though.

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Now, if you’re not familiar with the Booker Prize, it’s an annual award for ‘the best’ new book written in the English language by a citizen of the Commonwealth, Ireland or Zimbabwe.

As I say, the bookmakers’ favourite this is year Hilary Mantel’s Wolf Hall.

But as William Hill’s odds compiler Graham Sharpe admits on the BBC website, the bookies are a bit vague on how they compile their odds for the Booker Prize.

"How have these books been reviewed - that’s my form guide," says Sharpe.

"If I go to check the reviews, I get a good sense of the perceived wisdom about how good a book is."

Hmmmm.

Book reviews as a form guide. I’m not sure about that.

Of course, I’m no bookie either...

But I think relying on the often pretentious and needlessly cutting reviews written by wannabe authors for the mainstream press gives us an opportunity to get a little edge on the bookmakers.

You see, I believe there are more factors that influence the decision...

Why I think the bookies are wrong

First, the Booker Prize judges do like to make a star.

For the past 3 years, the winner of the Booker has been a bit of an unknown.

In 2006 Kiran Desai, in 2007 Anne Enright and in 2008 Aravind Adiga were all relative unknowns prior to the winning the prize.

They like to be responsible for dramatically boosting the sales of a particular novel.

A lot of the books in the shortlist have already sold well. But there is one that is relatively under-the- radar.

The second alternative factor...

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The Booker Prize often comes under criticism if it is seen to be too ‘mainstream’.

The literary elite still seem to harbour the illusion that to be a great literary talent you must be a tortured genius, needlessly controversial or at the very least a bohemian émigré.

And it’s pretty mainstream fodder this year.

In fact, the Independent criticised the selection, suggesting that it "shoves it back into the mainstream with a vengeance."

Maybe so. But the book I have my eye on is the least mainstream of the selection.

And here’s my final reason...

When you read a book that you think is going to be good and it’s good - you’re happy, you’re content.

When you read a book that you think is going to be good and it’s bad - you’re let down.

But when you read a book that you’re not quite sure about, that you think might be a slog... when you read it and it’s actually good...

You love that book. It’s an unexpected happiness. You think you’ve discovered something new for yourself.

Now, the Guardian’s Ian Sansom wrote of this book...

"Historical novels are usually possessed of horrid, obvious and multiple weaknesses and flaws..."

Enough to put Graham Sharpe of William Hill off the scent, maybe?

But Sansom goes on...

Saying that this book is "unexpectedly, a thing of extraordinary beauty and symmetry."

Reading the book he obviously had that third type of experience - expecting something to be bad but finding that it’s actually very good.

I think that’s a similar experience the Booker Prize judges will have. And that, along with it being a relatively unknown book and written by a British émigré living in Italy...

That is why I think Simon Mawer’s The Glass Room will win the 2009 Booker Prize.

As I say, I’m no bookie. But at 11/4 on Betfair, I think it’s worth a little punt.

To find the bet on Betfair, it’s under ‘All Sports’, ‘Special Bets’, ‘UK’, ‘The Man Booker Prize 2009’.

I’ve put £10 on it this morning and I’ll be looking out tonight to see who wins.

If you decide to get in with me - good luck.